Against the backdrop of pressure on the renminbi, some people worry that the exchange rate will continue to fall. In this regard, experts said that the overall pattern of two-way volatility of the renminbi, the trend is stable. In the future, there will be more positive factors supporting the RMB exchange rate.
Will there be another wave of devaluations?
The RMB exchange rate fluctuates, and some people worry that there will be a new wave of depreciation of the RMB.
Zhou Maohua, macro researcher of financial market department of Everbright Bank, told the media that the RMB exchange rate has fallen against the US dollar, but it is still a strong currency. The RMB has appreciated against other countries' currencies, and since February, the RMB has shown a two-way fluctuation pattern and a stable trend.
Wang Youxin believes that from the future trend, the Fed rate hike policy may continue until May, until then, the dollar index will get some support from the tightening policy.
"Of course, with the increase of the peak interest rate, the negative impact of the Fed's interest rate hike policy on the economy will continue to accumulate and emerge. Although the US economy is slowing down, the economic downward trend remains unchanged. Therefore, around the May interest rate meeting may become the key time point for the change of the trend of the international foreign exchange market. After that, there will be more positive factors supporting the RMB exchange rate as external constraints weaken." Wang Youxin said.
China will insist that the market plays a decisive role in the formation of the exchange rate, strengthen the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate, optimize expectations management and keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level, the People's Bank of China said in its report on the implementation of China's monetary policy in the fourth quarter of 2022 on Thursday.
In addition, the RMB internationalization process is also advancing. Iraq's central bank, for example, recently announced new measures to bolster its foreign exchange reserves, including allowing direct settlement of trade with China in renminbi. Separately, Russia's finance ministry will empty its national wealth fund of euros this year, reserving only gold, rubles and Chinese yuan, RIA Novosti reported.